Framework for Investigation

Question → Hypotheses → Arguments → Conclusion

Table of Contents

  1. Top-Down Framework for Investigation
    1. Articulate the Question
    2. Frame Competing Hypotheses
    3. Formulate the Arguments
    4. Evaluate the Arguments and Draw a Conclusion
  2. QHA Diagrams Question, Hypotheses, and Arguments
    1. News Media Bias
    2. Free Will
  3. Addenda
    1. Fact-Checking
    2. Alternative Ways of Knowing
    3. Why People Have Irrational Beliefs
    4. Rationalization
Top-Down Framework for Investigation
  1. Articulate the question to be answered
  2. Frame the competing hypotheses that address the question
  3. Formulate the arguments for and against the hypotheses
  4. Evaluate the arguments and draw a conclusion
Articulate the Question
  • Articulate the question to be answered clearly and precisely, preferably in writing.
  • Questions should be expressed rather than merely referred to
    • For example, “has there been a rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature since the mid-20th century, due primarily to greenhouse gases injected into the atmosphere by human activity” versus “the question of global warming.”
  • It’s better to express a question in open-ended form, other things being equal.
    • Closed-ended Questions
      • Is, Will, Was, Does, Did, Do, ……
    • Open-ended Questions
      • Why, How, What, When, Where……
  • The drawback of closed-ended questions is the risk of lumping different hypotheses together and conflating arguments.
  • Examples
    • Beginning of Human Life
      • Does human life begin at conception?
      • When does human life begin?
    • Existence of God
      • Does God exist?
      • What supernatural beings exist?
    • Afterlife
      • Is there an afterlife?
      • What happens to you when you die?
Frame Competing Hypotheses
  • A hypothesis is a proposition provisionally set forth to answer a particular question
  • Competing hypotheses are incompatible with each other, meaning at most one can be true.
Formulate the Arguments
  • An argument is a piece of reasoning, from premises to a conclusion.
    • A deductive argument is an argument from premises to a logically entailed consequence
    • A probability argument is an argument from evidence to a probable hypothesis.

View Arguments

Evaluate the Arguments and Draw a Conclusion
  • Drawing a conclusion means determining which of the competing hypothesis is most reasonable to believe based on the arguments, ideally establishing it beyond a reasonable doubt.
  • Degrees of reasonableness and likelihood:

View Epistemic Probability

QHA Diagrams
Question, Hypotheses, and Arguments
News Media Bias

View Bias

Free Will

View Free Will

Addenda
Fact-Checking
  • Fact-checkers rate claims true, false, misleading, and unsupported by evaluating the arguments pro and con.

View Fact-Checking

Alternative Ways of Knowing
  • The Claim
    • Some people know things other than by rational argument, e.g. through faith, intuition, divine revelation, or mystical experience.
  • The Problem
    • Knowing something through faith, intuition, divine revelation, or mystical experience requires that such ways of knowing are reliable sources of truth.  But establishing reliability requires a rational argument.
Why People Have Irrational Beliefs
  • People have irrational beliefs because:
    • they believe what they want to be true
    • they jump to conclusions, knowing only part of the story.

View Why People Have Irrational Beliefs

Rationalization
  • Believe first. Then think up arguments, i.e. rationalizations for your belief.
    • Rationalize means to bring into accord with reason or cause something to seem reasonable (Merriam-Webster)