Conspiracy Theories

A conspiracy theory explains events by invoking a secret plot by a group of conspirators

Outline

Conspiracy Theories

A conspiracy theory explains events by invoking a secret plot by a group of conspirators

Conspiracy Theories vs Straightforward Explanations

A conspiracy theory explains the evidence as resulting from a secret plot by a powerful group of conspirators.
But there’s always a simpler, straightforward explanation of the evidence.

For Example

Unsupported Non-conspiracy Theories

Not all unsupported theories postulate a conspiracy.
- Vaccines cause autism
- Astrology
- Scientific Creationism

Common Conspiracy Theories

QAnon

FBI Intelligence Bulletin, May 30, 2019
- The FBI assesses in some cases anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy theories very likely encourage the targeting of specific people, places, and organizations, thereby increasing the risk of extremist violence against such targets.
- Fringe Political:
  - QAnon: An anonymous government official known as “Q” posts classified information online to reveal a covert effort, led by President Trump, to dismantle a conspiracy involving “deep state” actors and global elites allegedly engaged in an international child sex trafficking ring.’
The Prophecies of Q The Atlantic
- On October 28, 2017, the anonymous user now widely referred to as “Q” appeared for the first time on 4chan, a so-called image board known for its grotesque memes, sickening photographs, and brutal teardown culture. Q predicted the imminent arrest of Hillary Clinton and a violent uprising nationwide, posting this:
  - “HRC extradition already in motion effective yesterday with several countries in case of cross border run. Passport approved to be flagged effective 10/30 @ 12:01am. Expect massive riots organized in defiance and others fleeing the US to occur. US M’s will conduct the operation while NG activated. Proof check: Locate a NG member and ask if activated for duty 10/30 across most major cities.”
QAnon Britannica
QAnon Wikipedia
Articles
- Facebook imposes major new restrictions on QAnon, stepping up enforcement against the conspiracy theory WaPo
- House votes to condemn baseless QAnon conspiracy theory WaPo
- Facebook and Twitter said they would crack down on QAnon, but the delusion seems unstoppable Vox
- What Is QAnon, the Viral Pro-Trump Conspiracy Theory? NYT
- QAnon: What is it and where did it come from? BBC
- QAnon Followers Are Hijacking the #SaveTheChildren Movement NYT
- How the Trump campaign came to court QAnon, the online conspiracy movement identified by the FBI as a violent threat WaPo

Plandemic

The Falsehoods of the ‘Plandemic’ Video, factcheck.org
- Unfounded Attacks on Fauci
- Scientists: Novel Coronavirus Not ‘Manipulated’
- Misleading Claim on Wuhan Lab Funding
- Flu Vaccines Don’t Contain Coronaviruses
- No Evidence Flu Shot Increases Risk of COVID-19
- Hydroxychloroquine: Unproven COVID-19 Therapy
- Wrong Message on Masks
- False Suggestion About Ebola
New ‘Plandemic’ Video Peddles Misinformation, Conspiracies, factcheck.org
Plandemic Wikipedia

Trump’s Conspiracy Theories

Inside Trump’s Truth Social Conspiracy Theory Machine NY Times
- The Times analyzed thousands of Mr. Trump’s posts and reposts over a six-month period in 2024 and found that at least 330 of them met two tightly defined and striking criteria: They each described both a false, secretive plot against Mr. Trump or the American people and a specific entity supposedly responsible for it. The unfounded theories ranged from suggestions that the F.B.I. had ordered his assassination to accusations that government officials had orchestrated the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.
- The Times’s analysis identified 10 distinct themes in the conspiracy theories shared by Mr. Trump:
  - 268 posts about 2024 election interference
    - Includes claims that the court cases against Mr. Trump are fabricated by Mr. Biden to interfere in the election and that the Democratic Party is planning to rely on undocumented voters, dead voters and fraudulent mail-in voting.
  - 43 posts about George Soros
    - Includes claims that Mr. Trump’s adversaries are puppets of the philanthropist George Soros and other “globalist” actors.
  - 25 posts about the 2020 election being stolen
    - Includes claims that the 2020 election was rigged in favor of Mr. Biden and that the Democratic Party cheated in order to win.
  - 22 posts about the deep state
    - Includes claims of elaborate schemes involving a covert group of powerful people referred to as the deep state.
  - 12 posts about replacement theory
    - Includes claims that Democratic politicians are importing illegal immigrants to replace Americans.
  - 12 posts about other conspiracies
    - Includes claims surrounding Covid, fake job numbers, the fixing of oil prices and whether the F.B.I. ordered the July 13 assassination attempt on Mr. Trump.
  - 9 posts about foreign influence
    - Includes claims about financial incentives paid personally to Mr. Biden to act on behalf of countries like China and Ukraine.
  - 6 posts about the Jan. 6 hoax
    - Includes claims that the Capitol riot was an “inside job” staged by the federal government to make Mr. Trump and his supporters look bad.
  - 6 posts about Biden not being in charge
    - Includes claims that Ms. Harris was installed through a coup after deceiving the American public by hiding Mr. Biden’s health until late into the campaign. Also includes claims questioning whether Mr. Biden is alive.
  - 4 posts about Kamala Harris cheating
    - Includes claims that Ms. Harris cheated during the debate and is faking support by paying for online followers and exaggerating crowd sizes.

Trump’s Long History With Conspiracy Theories, factcheck.org
- “Here, we summarize some of the conspiracy theories that Trump has either explicitly pushed or subtly elevated both before and during his time in the White House — many of which we’ve covered at length before.”
  - False Birther Conspiracy
  - ISIS and Obama
  - Ted Cruz’s Father and JFK’s Assassination
  - Questioning Cruz’s Eligibility
  - Celebration in New Jersey on 9/11
  - Scarborough Smear
  - Misrepresenting COVID-19 Deaths
  - Biden and SEAL Team 6
  - The ‘ANTIFA provocateur’
  - Biden and ‘the Dark Shadows’
  - Scalia’s Death
  - Vince Foster
  - Epstein and the Clintons
  - DNC Server
  - Hydroxychloroquine

Sam Stein, The Bulwark 9/16/2024
- The former president has been a prolific conspiracy theorist for decades.
  - Trump was the de facto leader of the Obama birther movement, even casually suggesting that the director of the Hawaii Department of Health, who died in a plane crash, was murdered as part of a coverup.
  - He openly mused that former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers wrote Obama’s memoir and that Obama never actually went to Columbia University.
  - He floated the idea that Ted Cruz’s father had ties to Lee Harvey Oswald. He raised doubts about Vince Foster’s suicide.
  - He wondered aloud if Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was suffocated to death.
  - He pushed the story that Muslims in New Jersey were cheering after 9/11.
  - He raised the idea that Marco Rubio was ineligible to be president because his parents weren’t yet U.S. citizens at the time of his birth. He did the same about Ted Cruz. And Nikki Haley. And Kamala Harris, too.
  - He questioned the authenticity of the Access Hollywood tape (this was after he apologized for it).
  - He claimed Obama had him wiretapped at Trump Tower.
  - He claimed the death toll from Hurricane Maria was inflated to make him look bad.
  - He said the noise from windmills causes cancer.
  - He pushed a video saying that the Clintons killed Jeffrey Epstein.
  - He said Ukraine could be hiding Hillary Clinton’s missing emails.
  - He said that “the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.”
  - He said that fears about asbestos were a conspiracy designed to line the pockets of asbestos-cleanup companies run by the mob.
  - He retweeted several conspiracy theories around the death of Osama bin Laden (that it could have been a body double).
  - He has said jobs numbers are manipulated, the unemployment figure was made up, the COVID death numbers were inflated, the Obamacare enrollment numbers were exaggerated, and the border crossing numbers “manipulated” to make the Obama administration look better.
  - And, of course, he’s spread a steady stream of lies about election numbers.
    - The 2012 one: dead people voted for Obama.
    - The 2016 one: cheating in blue states like California and New York deprived him of a popular vote win.
    - The 2020 one . . . where do we even start?
      - Sharpies did not invalidate Trump votes;
      - Dominion did not either.
      - People weren’t throwing away bags filled with Trump ballots or randomly finding suitcases filled with Biden ones.
      - Thousands of dead people didn’t vote multiple times.
      - And, no, Italians did not use military technology to tamper with U.S. voting machines.

Wikipedia
- List of conspiracy theories promoted by Trump, Wikipedia
- Conspiracy theories related to the Trump–Ukraine scandal, Wikipedia

Evaluating Conspiracy Theories

A conspiracy theory is implausible to the extent the competing straightforward theory is reasonable.
Since conspiracy theories are more complicated than straightforward explanations, an a priori reason for doubting them is the Principle of Simplicity, or Ockham’s Razor:
- The simpler of competing theories is more likely, other things being equal.
The “evidence” for a conspiracy theory is sometimes bogus.
- politifact.com/facebook-fact-checks/statements/2019/feb/01/facebook-posts/conspiracy-theorists-peddle-fake-claim-about-1986-/
Fact-checkers provide useful analysis:
- Gingrich Spreads Conspiracy Theory
  - factcheck.org/2017/05/gingrich-spreads-conspiracy-theory/
- Trump’s ‘evidence’ for Obama wiretap claims relies on sketchy, anonymously sourced reports
  - washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/03/05/trumps-evidence-for-obama-wiretap-claims-relies-on-sketchy-anonymously-sourced-reports/
- Conspiracy theorists peddle fake claim about the 1986 Challenger Space Shuttle disaster
  - politifact.com/facebook-fact-checks/statements/2019/feb/01/facebook-posts/conspiracy-theorists-peddle-fake-claim-about-1986-/
Some conspiracy theorists claim they have evidence which they promise to produce later, but never do. Other conspiracy theorists claim they can’t produce evidence because the it’s based on anonymous FBI sources or the conspirators destroyed it all. No matter the reason, no evidence is forthcoming.

Why People Believe

scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-people-believe-in-conspiracy-theories/
- Surveys by Uscinski and Parent show that believers in conspiracies “cut across gender, age, race, income, political affiliation, educational level, and occupational status.”
wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory
- According to the political scientist Michael Barkun, conspiracy theories rely on the view that the universe is governed by design, and embody three principles:
  - nothing happens by accident
  - nothing is as it seems
  - everything is connected.
- Another common feature is that conspiracy theories evolve to incorporate whatever evidence exists against them, so that they become, as Barkun writes, a closed system that is unfalsifiable, and therefore “a matter of faith rather than proof”
Why Rational People Buy Into Conspiracy Theories, New York Times Magazine, Maggie Koerth-Baker
- “The best predictor of belief in a conspiracy theory is belief in other conspiracy theories,” says Viren Swami, a psychology professor who studies conspiracy belief at the University of Westminster in England. Psychologists say that’s because a conspiracy theory isn’t so much a response to a single event as it is an expression of an overarching worldview.
- “If you know the truth and others don’t, that’s one way you can reassert feelings of having agency,” Swami says. It can be comforting to do your own research even if that research is flawed. It feels good to be the wise old goat in a flock of sheep.

Addendum

Readings and Links on Conspiracy Theories in American Politics

American Conspiracy Theories Joseph E. Uscinski and Joseph M. Parent (2014)
Atlantic Shadowland
- theatlantic.com/shadowland/
Conspiracy theories are a dangerous threat to our democracy, Arthur Brooks
Conspiracy Theories in American History, An Encyclopedia, Peter Knight, Editor (2003)
Enemies Within: The Culture of Conspiracy in Modern America, Robert Alan Goldberg (2001)
Move over, Illuminati. The conspiracy against Trump’s economy is massive. Catherine Rampell
Populism is bipartisan. Conspiratorial thinking is the province of the far right. Jennifer Rubin
Swamp fever: Don’t blame Trump for the rise of right-wing conspiracy theories. The GOP helped cultivate them — until they took over, Matthew Dallek
The Paranoid Style in American Politics, Richard Hofstadter (1964)
Trump’s spread of conspiracy theories undermines a belief in truth itself, Michael Gerson
Why do people believe the moon landing hoax or other conspiracy theories?, Elizabeth Svoboda

Definitions of Conspiracy Theory

merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conspiracy%20theory
- A theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators
ahdictionary.com/word/search.html?q=conspiracy+theory
- A theory seeking to explain a disputed case or matter as a plot by a secret group or alliance rather than an individual or isolated act.
scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-people-believe-in-conspiracy-theories/
- A conspiracy theory, Uscinski and Parent explain, is defined by four characteristics: “(1) a group (2) acting in secret (3) to alter institutions, usurp power, hide truth, or gain utility (4) at the expense of the common good.”
britannica.com/topic/conspiracy-theory
- A conspiracy theory is an attempt to explain harmful or tragic events as the result of the actions of a small, powerful group.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory
- A conspiracy theory is an explanation of an event or situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister and powerful actors, often political in motivation, when other explanations are more probable

FBI Intelligence Bulletin, May 30, 2019

Anti-government, Identity Based, And Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories Likely Motivate Some Domestic Terrorists To Commit Criminal, Sometimes Violent, Activity