Content
- Conspiracy Theories
- Conspiracy Theories vs Straightforward Explanations
- Unsupported Non-conspiracy Theories
- FBI Intelligence Bulletin, May 30, 2019
- Examples
- Evaluating Conspiracy Theories
- Why People Believe
- Addenda
Conspiracy Theories
A conspiracy theory explains events by invoking a secret plot by a group of conspirators
Conspiracy Theories vs Straightforward Explanations
- A conspiracy theory explains the evidence as resulting from a secret plot by a powerful group of conspirators.
- But there’s always a simpler, straightforward explanation of the evidence.
For Example
Unsupported Non-conspiracy Theories
- Not all unsupported theories postulate a conspiracy.
- Vaccines cause autism
- Astrology
- Scientific Creationism
FBI Intelligence Bulletin, May 30, 2019
Anti-government, Identity Based, And Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories Likely Motivate Some Domestic Terrorists To Commit Criminal, Sometimes Violent, Activity
Links to Common Conspiracy Theories
Wikipedia List of Conspiracy Theories
Evaluating Conspiracy Theories
- A conspiracy theory is implausible to the extent the competing straightforward theory is reasonable.
- Since conspiracy theories are more complicated than straightforward explanations, an a priori reason for doubting them is the Principle of Simplicity, or Ockham’s Razor:
- The simpler of competing theories is more likely, other things being equal.
- The “evidence” for a conspiracy theory is sometimes bogus.
- Fact-checkers provide useful analysis:
- Gingrich Spreads Conspiracy Theory
- Trump’s ‘evidence’ for Obama wiretap claims relies on sketchy, anonymously sourced reports
- Conspiracy theorists peddle fake claim about the 1986 Challenger Space Shuttle disaster
- Conspiracy theorists sometimes claim they have evidence that can’t be produced because, they say, the evidence is based on anonymous FBI sources or the conspirators destroyed it all. Either way, no evidence is forthcoming.
Why People Believe
- scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-people-believe-in-conspiracy-theories/
- Surveys by Uscinski and Parent show that believers in conspiracies “cut across gender, age, race, income, political affiliation, educational level, and occupational status.”
- wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory
- According to the political scientist Michael Barkun, conspiracy theories rely on the view that the universe is governed by design, and embody three principles:
- nothing happens by accident
- nothing is as it seems
- everything is connected.
- Another common feature is that conspiracy theories evolve to incorporate whatever evidence exists against them, so that they become, as Barkun writes, a closed system that is unfalsifiable, and therefore “a matter of faith rather than proof”
- According to the political scientist Michael Barkun, conspiracy theories rely on the view that the universe is governed by design, and embody three principles:
- Why Rational People Buy Into Conspiracy Theories, New York Times Magazine, Maggie Koerth-Baker
- “The best predictor of belief in a conspiracy theory is belief in other conspiracy theories,” says Viren Swami, a psychology professor who studies conspiracy belief at the University of Westminster in England. Psychologists say that’s because a conspiracy theory isn’t so much a response to a single event as it is an expression of an overarching worldview.
- “If you know the truth and others don’t, that’s one way you can reassert feelings of having agency,” Swami says. It can be comforting to do your own research even if that research is flawed. It feels good to be the wise old goat in a flock of sheep.
QAnon
- FBI Intelligence Bulletin, May 30, 2019
- The FBI assesses in some cases anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy theories very likely encourage the targeting of specific people, places, and organizations, thereby increasing the risk of extremist violence against such targets.
- Fringe Political:
- QAnon: An anonymous government official known as “Q” posts classified information online to reveal a covert effort, led by President Trump, to dismantle a conspiracy involving “deep state” actors and global elites allegedly engaged in an international child sex trafficking ring.’
- The Prophecies of Q Atlantic
- On October 28, 2017, the anonymous user now widely referred to as “Q” appeared for the first time on 4chan, a so-called image board known for its grotesque memes, sickening photographs, and brutal teardown culture. Q predicted the imminent arrest of Hillary Clinton and a violent uprising nationwide, posting this:
- “HRC extradition already in motion effective yesterday with several countries in case of cross border run. Passport approved to be flagged effective 10/30 @ 12:01am. Expect massive riots organized in defiance and others fleeing the US to occur. US M’s will conduct the operation while NG activated. Proof check: Locate a NG member and ask if activated for duty 10/30 across most major cities.”
- On October 28, 2017, the anonymous user now widely referred to as “Q” appeared for the first time on 4chan, a so-called image board known for its grotesque memes, sickening photographs, and brutal teardown culture. Q predicted the imminent arrest of Hillary Clinton and a violent uprising nationwide, posting this:
- Facebook imposes major new restrictions on QAnon, stepping up enforcement against the conspiracy theory WaPo
- House votes to condemn baseless QAnon conspiracy theory WaPo
- Facebook and Twitter said they would crack down on QAnon, but the delusion seems unstoppable Vox
- What Is QAnon, the Viral Pro-Trump Conspiracy Theory? NYT
- QAnon: What is it and where did it come from? BBC
- QAnon Followers Are Hijacking the #SaveTheChildren Movement NYT
- How the Trump campaign came to court QAnon, the online conspiracy movement identified by the FBI as a violent threat WaPo
- QAnon Wiki
Plandemic
- The Falsehoods of the ‘Plandemic’ Video, Factcheck.org
- Unfounded Attacks on Fauci
- Scientists: Novel Coronavirus Not ‘Manipulated’
- Misleading Claim on Wuhan Lab Funding
- Flu Vaccines Don’t Contain Coronaviruses
- No Evidence Flu Shot Increases Risk of COVID-19
- Hydroxychloroquine: Unproven COVID-19 Therapy
- Wrong Message on Masks
- False Suggestion About Ebola
- New ‘Plandemic’ Video Peddles Misinformation, Conspiracies, Factcheck.org
- wikipedia.org/wiki/Plandemic
Trump’s Conspiracy Theories
- Trump’s Long History With Conspiracy Theories, factcheck.org
- “Here, we summarize some of the conspiracy theories that Trump has either explicitly pushed or subtly elevated both before and during his time in the White House — many of which we’ve covered at length before.”
- False Birther Conspiracy
- ISIS and Obama
- Ted Cruz’s Father and JFK’s Assassination
- Questioning Cruz’s Eligibility
- Celebration in New Jersey on 9/11
- Scarborough Smear
- Misrepresenting COVID-19 Deaths
- Biden and SEAL Team 6
- The ‘ANTIFA provocateur’
- Biden and ‘the Dark Shadows’
- Scalia’s Death
- Vince Foster
- Epstein and the Clintons
- DNC Server
- Hydroxychloroquine
- “Here, we summarize some of the conspiracy theories that Trump has either explicitly pushed or subtly elevated both before and during his time in the White House — many of which we’ve covered at length before.”
Addenda
Readings and Links on Conspiracy Theories in American Politics
- American Conspiracy Theories Joseph E. Uscinski and Joseph M. Parent (2014)
- Atlantic Shadowland
- Conspiracy theories are a dangerous threat to our democracy, Arthur Brooks
- Conspiracy Theories in American History, An Encyclopedia, Peter Knight, Editor (2003)
- Enemies Within: The Culture of Conspiracy in Modern America, Robert Alan Goldberg (2001)
- Move over, Illuminati. The conspiracy against Trump’s economy is massive. Catherine Rampell
- Populism is bipartisan. Conspiratorial thinking is the province of the far right. Jennifer Rubin
- Swamp fever: Don’t blame Trump for the rise of right-wing conspiracy theories. The GOP helped cultivate them — until they took over, Matthew Dallek
- The Paranoid Style in American Politics, Richard Hofstadter (1964)
- Trump’s spread of conspiracy theories undermines a belief in truth itself, Michael Gerson
- Why do people believe the moon landing hoax or other conspiracy theories?, Elizabeth Svoboda
Definitions of Conspiracy Theory
- merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conspiracy%20theory
- A theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators
- ahdictionary.com/word/search.html?q=conspiracy+theory
- A theory seeking to explain a disputed case or matter as a plot by a secret group or alliance rather than an individual or isolated act.
- scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-people-believe-in-conspiracy-theories/
- A conspiracy theory, Uscinski and Parent explain, is defined by four characteristics: “(1) a group (2) acting in secret (3) to alter institutions, usurp power, hide truth, or gain utility (4) at the expense of the common good.”
- britannica.com/topic/conspiracy-theory
- A conspiracy theory is an attempt to explain harmful or tragic events as the result of the actions of a small, powerful group.
- wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory
- A conspiracy theory is an explanation of an event or situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister and powerful actors, often political in motivation, when other explanations are more probable
A Philosopher's View 