How Reasoning Goes Awry

• Anomalies of Language
  • What Berkeley called the mist and veil of words can cause confusion and impede reasoning.

• Artifices of Deception and Distraction
  • Politicians and tricksters use artifices of deception and distraction when they can’t persuade by rational argument

• Bias
  • The core notion of bias, which underlies prejudicial, cognitive, and statistical bias, is that of a force drawing a process off course.

• Conspiracy Theories
  • A conspiracy theory explains the evidence as resulting from a secret plot by a powerful group of conspirators.
  • The problem with conspiracy theories is that there’s always a simpler, straightforward explanation of the evidence which, per Ockham’s Razor, is more likely.

• Disinformation
  • “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire

• Fallacies
  • A fallacy is an error in reasoning having an air of plausibility

• Fooled by Statistics
  • Statistics is tricky. It’s easy to fool yourself and others.

• Why People Believe Irrational Things
  • They believe what they want to be true
  • They jump to conclusions, knowing only part of the story
  • They seek out epistemic bubbles to protect deeply-held beliefs.