Behind the News

  • Page 21 — fourth Richey factor
  • Page 17 — third Richey factor
  • The US requested a stay regarding two rulings by Cannon:
    • Cannon required the government to submit for the special master’s review 100 documents with classification markings.
    • Cannon enjoined the United States from using those documents in a criminal investigation until the special master was done with them.
  • Appellate court granted the stay
  • Appellate court evaluated four factors:
    • (1) whether the stay applicant has made a strong showing that he is likely to succeed on the merits;
      • A. The United States has established a substantial likelihood of success on the merits
        • Cannon ruled three of the four Richey factors favored Trump
        • Appeal Court ruled all Richey factors favored US
    • (2) whether the applicant will be irreparably injured absent a stay;
      • B. The United States would suffer irreparable injury in the absence of a stay.
    • (3) whether issuance of the stay will substantially injure the other parties interested in the proceeding;
      • C. Plaintiff has not shown that he will suffer a substantial injury as a result of the limited stay.
    • (4) where the public interest lies.
      • D. The public interest favors a stay.

Durham Investigation

Philip Bump WaPo

  • Operation Crossfire Hurricane is opened (2016)
    • On July 31, 2016 the FBI opened a counterintelligence investigation, code-named Crossfire Hurricane, into “whether individuals associated with Donald Trump’s presidential campaign were coordinating, wittingly or unwittingly, with the Russian government’s efforts to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.”
  • Why Crossfire Hurricane was opened
    • On 22 July 2016, WikiLeaks released approximately 20,000 emails and 8,000 files sent from or received by Democratic National Committee (DNC) personnel. Wikipedia
    • From the Mueller Report (2019}
      • “In late July 2016, soon after WikiLeaks’s first release of stolen documents, a foreign government contacted the FBI about a May 2016 encounter with Trump Campaign foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos. Papadopoulos had suggested to a representative of that foreign government that the Trump Campaign had received indications from the Russian government that it could assist the Campaign through the anonymous release of information damaging to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. That information prompted the FBI on July 31, 2016, to open an investigation into whether individuals associated with the Trump Campaign were coordinating with the Russian government in its interference activities.”
  • Crossfire Hurricane was not predicated on the Steele Dossier
    • The Steele dossier did not trigger Mueller’s investigation. It was information from Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos that set the probe in motion. Politifact
    • The Steele dossier was not the basis for the FBI’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. CNN Fact Check
    • Why the Discredited Dossier Does Not Undercut the Russia Investigation NYT
  • FBI was justified in opening Crossfire Hurricane, per IG Report by Michael Horowitz (2019)
    • “We concluded that Priestap’s exercise of discretion in opening the investigation was in compliance with Department and FBI policies, and we did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that political bias or improper motivation influenced his decision.” page iii
    • The report found problems with the FISA process
      • “That so many basic and fundamental errors were made on four FISA applications by three separate, handpicked teams, on one of the most sensitive FBI investigations that was briefed to the highest levels within the FBI and that FBI officials expected would eventually be subjected to close scrutiny, raised significant questions regarding the FBI chain of command’s management and supervision of the FISA process.”
  • Durham told Horowitz in 2019 that the evidence supported opening a preliminary investigation, but not necessarily a full investigation. WaPo
  • Durham Investigation
    • In May 2019, Barr appointed Durham to oversee a DOJ probe into the origins of the FBI investigation into Russian interference.  (Wikipedia)
    • Jan, 2021 Guilty Plea by Kevin Clinesmith
      • A federal judge has handed down a one-year sentence of probation to a former FBI lawyer who pleaded guilty to doctoring an email used to get surveillance on a former Trump campaign adviser during the Russia investigation. NPR
    • May, 2022 Acquittal of Michael Sussman
      • Michael Sussmann, a prominent cybersecurity lawyer with ties to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, was acquitted on Tuesday of lying to the F.B.I. in 2016 when he shared a tip about possible connections between Donald J. Trump and Russia. NYT
    • October, 2022 Acquittal of Igor Danchenko
      • Igor Danchenko, an analyst who provided much of the research for a notorious dossier of unproven assertions and rumors about former President Donald J. Trump and Russia, was acquitted on Tuesday on four counts of lying to the F.B.I. about one of his sources. NYT
    • Durham Inquiry Appears to Wind Down as Grand Jury Expires NYT
      • The grand jury that Mr. Durham has recently used to hear evidence has expired, and while he could convene another, there are currently no plans to do so, three people familiar with the matter said.
      • Mr. Durham and his team are working to complete a final report by the end of the year, they said, and one of the lead prosecutors on his team is leaving for a job with a prominent law firm.
  • Will Durham’s report differ significantly from Horowitz’s?

Standard Errors of the Regression, the Mean, the Independent Variables, and the Intercept

Standard Error
  • The standard error for a statistic is the standard distribution of its sampling distribution
  • Consider a population statistic, perhaps average income or the percentage of people who are colorblind.
  • Now take an n-size random sample and compute the statistic for the sample. It will undoubtedly differ from the population statistic.  Now take a second n-size sample and compute its statistic.  Then another and another until you’ve computed the statistic for hundreds of samples.  The standard error of the statistic is the standard deviation of the all the sample statistics
    • The set of sample statistics is the sampling distribution of the statistic.
  • There are formulas for estimating the standard error of various statistics from population parameters.  The most well known is the formula for the mean of a population quantity:  σ/√n, where
    • σ is the standard deviation of the quantity in the population
    • n is the size of the sample.
Data for Examples
  • datapoints = {{51, 55}, {100, 68}, {63, 60}, {52, 40}, {67, 45}, {42, 49}, {81, 62}, {70, 56}, {108, 93}, {90, 76}}
  • xs = {51, 100, 63,52, 67, 42, 81, 70, 108, 90}
  • ys = {55, 68, 60, 40, 45, 49, 62, 56, 93, 76}
  • n = number of datapoints = 10
  • k = number of independent variables = 1
  • Regression Equation: y = 16.3961 + 0.607789 x
Two Sums of Squares and One Square of Sums
  • Residual Sum of Squares
  • Sum of Squares for x
  • Square of Sum of xs
  • View Sums of Squares
Standard Error of the Regression
Standard Error of the Mean
Standard Error of Independent Variable x
Standard Error of the Intercept
Parameter Table